Monday, August 16, 2004


just when you thought it couldn't get any worse

it does. earlier this year, it seemed like green coffee prices were on an uptick, which due to the now-4-year-old world-price depression known as the "coffee crisis," was a good thing.

coffee farmers might be able to make a living growing coffee and not feel pressure to switch to illegal drugs. coffee workers might be able to feed themselves picking coffee and not feel pressure to head north to cross the border to arizona illegally.

but alas it was not to be. the price of coffee continues to drop substantially as brazil and vietnam insist on overproducing low-quality coffee. this strategy of racing to the bottom won't help either country in the long run, and i'm surprised they don't understand that.

it's not a feasible development strategy. as these countries continue to plant more and more, growing ever-cheaper, ever-lower-quality beans, more of their population becomes dependent on bad coffee.

but the globe is drinking less of this poor quality java nearly every year; the premium specialty coffee sector is the growing market. thus as consumption of this mass-market coffee continues its decline, brazil and vietnam will be caught in a hard, bad place.

it's a recipe for economic depression and social unrest. with the speed of the modern market, it's gonna happen much sooner than much later.

finally, this looks like a great recipe for chocolate-cherry-oatmeal cookies. i don't like oatmeal myself, but i know many do.

posted by fortune | 8:34 AM | top | link to this | email this: | | | 0 comments